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Kentucky Derby 2024: Math says 6 horses have clinched a spot

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The arithmetic says seven horses have assured themselves of
invitations to Kentucky Derby 2024. Well, really it is six. Past experience suggests at least four or
five more should have their connections confident enough to make plans for May
4 at Churchill Downs.

After Catching Freedom punched his ticket by winning the
Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on Saturday, and since Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) victor
Endlessly apparently will be diverted to the turf, the mathematical cutline did
not move much. Any horse with at least 65 points has clinched.

First Look: See who could clinch this weekend.

Track Phantom, West Saratoga and Honor Marie had enough
points from their previous preps to earn their way into the Derby thanks to
their top-four finishes Saturday. Timberlake, who will race this weekend in the
Arkansas Derby (G1), already had clinched.

T O Password, the winner of Saturday’s Fukuryu Stakes, looks
like he will use the invitation that comes from the Japan road to the
Derby. Triple Crown liaison Kate Hunter said that if he did not, Ramjet would take
it.

That would leave 19 post positions to be filled by
qualifiers from the main points trail, but it could be only 18. There is the
small complication of waiting for the Europe invitation to be accepted or rejected.
That will not be formal until after the April 6 running of the Cardinal Stakes
at Chelmsford City, England.

There are 100-point rewards still sitting out there for the
winners of the six major preps this weekend and next, including the UAE Derby (G2), Florida Derby (G1) and Arkansas Derby on Saturday. That means six
horses with no points could poach those invitations. Add 50 points to each of the
horses ranked 21st through 26th, and that means there could be as many as 18
horses with at least 65 points.

The cutline is likely to come down as horses already in the top 20 finish in the top two of the major preps. As a result, Dornoch, Domestic Product, Sierra Leone and Deterministic and maybe even No More Time probably are in. It just not mathematically certain yet.

With points and earnings reported by Churchill Downs, these
are the current clinch scenarios for Kentucky Derby 2024:

 Kentucky Derby 2024        
Already clinched Rank Pts. **Earnings Trainer
Catching Freedom   1st 125    $802,000 Brad Cox
Endlessly – x   2nd 100    $658,000 Michael McCarthy
Track Phantom   3rd   70    $300,000 Steve Asmussen
West Saratoga   4th   67    $363,640 Larry Demeritte
Timberlake   5th   66 $1,053,750 Brad Cox
Honor Marie   6th   65    $448,455 Whit Beckman
T O Password   JPN      $161,743 Daisuke Takayanagi
Not quite Rank  Pts. **Earnings Trainer
Dornoch   7th 60    $425,500 Danny Gargan
Domestic Product   8th 60    $260,500 Chad Brown
Sierra Leone   9th 55    $290,000 Chad Brown
Deterministic 10th 50    $165,000 Christophe Clément
No More Time 11th 45    $194,380 José D’Angelo
Common Defense 12th 37    $253,450 Kenny McPeek
Fierceness 13th 36 $1,069,500 Todd Pletcher
El Grande O 14th 30    $151,000 Linda Rice
Seize the Grey 15th 27    $100,663 D. Wayne Lukas
Stronghold 16th 25    $292,800 Phil D’Amato
Le Dom Bro 17th 25    $106,000 Eniel Cordero
Tuscan Gold 18th 25    $100,000 Chad Brown
Just a Touch 19th 25      $60,000 Brad Cox
Mystik Dan 20th 21    $418,800 Kenny McPeek
Need work or help Rank Pts. **Earnings Trainer
Hades 21st 20    $161,900 Joe Orseno
Uncle Heavy 22nd 20    $137,500 Butch Reid
Encino 23rd 20      $87,536 Brad Cox
Liberal Arts 24th 19    $220,325 Robbie Medina
Mc Vay 25th 19      $48,000 John Shirreffs
Northern Flame 26th 18    $143,800 Kenny McPeek
Lucky Jeremy 27th 16    $119,200 Bill Morey
Scatify 28th 16      $42,000 John Sadler
Just Steel 29th 15    $365,795 D. Wayne Lukas
Frankie’s Empire   * 15    $138,100 Bo Yates
Grand Mo the First 30th 15      $71,250 Víctor Barboza Jr.
Triple Espresso 31st 15      $63,000 Todd Pletcher
Nash 32nd 13    $164,000 Brad Cox
Agate Road 33rd 10    $214,750 Todd Pletcher
Otto the Conqueror 34th 10    $207,600 Steve Asmussen
Alotaluck 35th 10    $105,360 Ty Garrett
Epic Ride 36th 10    $104,565 John Ennis
Dancing Groom 37th 10      $88,902 Antonio Sano
Woodcourt   * 10      $79,275 Cipriano Contreras
Real Macho 38th 10      $20,000 Rohan Crichton
Maximus Meridius 39th 10      $18,000 Butch Reid
Good Money 40th 10      $17,500 Chad Brown
Resilience 41st 10      $16,000 Bill Mott
     *Not nominated for TC        
   **Non-restricted stakes        
    x Expected to skip Derby      
JPN Japan berth      

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