ATP Santiago is already producing incredible tennis and that will continue on Thursday.
I’ve found betting value on two of Thursday’s interesting matches, including Djere vs Bonadio and Cerundolo vs Etcheverry.
Read on for my odds and picks for Thursday’s matches at ATP Santiago.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
ATP Santiago Odds, Picks
Laslo Djere (-550) vs Riccardo Bonadio (+350)
1:20 p.m. ET
Laslo Djere comfortably defeated Joao Sousa 6-3, 6-2 to open his Santiago campaign. Djere won 84% of his first serves, 79% of his second serves and didn’t face a break point. The Serb also held Sousa to 55% of his first serves won and broke three times.
While Djere is just 3-2 during this year’s Golden Swing, he is now 273-134 on clay for his career. The Serb has a huge first serve and hits his forehand with controlled aggression. Djere spreads the court well and puts his opponents on the defensive. In addition, Djere’s backhand is solid.
Riccardo Bonadio qualified for Santiago then took out Daniel Galan 6-3, 7-6(5) in the first round. Bonadio won 67% of his service points and was only broken once. On return, the Italian did a great job of defusing Galan’s second serve, winning 55% of his second-serve return points and breaking three times.
Including his two Santiago qualifying victories, Bonadio has only faced one break point so far and held every opponent to under 50% of their second serves.
This is Bonadio’s first clay event of the season, but the Italian has gone 10-5 in 2023. Historically, he’s a strong clay courter, with a 363-265 career-record on the dirt.
Bonadio is hitting his spots perfectly right now. He can play offense from both wings, and his beautiful one-handed backhand holds up much better than Sousa’s. Bonadio’s variety is also world-class.
Santiago is 1870 feet above sea level, which helps boost both player’s serves and makes it harder to get into return games. This is important because it helps equalize things for an underdog like Bonadio, who is already hitting his spots on serve.
In addition, the Italian is balancing offense and defense well. He counterpunches effectively when he has to (important against Djere), while still playing offense effectively from both wings when given the opportunity.
Bonadio should make this match closer than expected.
Pick: Over 20.5 games (-110 via BetMGM)
Francisco Cerundolo (-192) vs. Tomas Martin Etcheverry (+142)
2 p.m. ET
Francisco Cerundolo last played in Rio, falling to Bernabe Zapata Miralles 1-6, 6-4, 1-6. Cerundolo only won 41% of his service points and was broken eight times. The Argentine did win 52% of his second-serve returns and broke on four occasions.
It has been a mediocre Golden Swing for Cerundolo, as he is now 4-3 during this stretch. However, as a professional, the Argentine is an astonishing 219-88 on clay. Cerundolo has easy power from the baseline, especially with his huge forehand. When he’s on, Cerundolo hits with excellent variety.
Unfortunately Cerundolo is mentally in-and-out of matches and bails out of rallies quickly, spraying errors.
Tomas Martin Etcheverry beat Fabio Fognini 6-1, 7-6(1) to kick off Santiago. Etcheverry won 81% of his first-serve points and only getting broken twice. On return, the Argentine held Fognini to 50% of his first serves won and broke on four occasions.
He is now a shaky 3-3 for the Golden Swing this season, although Etcheverry has generally played at a higher level than Cerundolo. Traditionally, Etcheverry can play on the dirt, compiling a 251-124 clay-record for his career.
Etcheverry hits his spots on serve, and has a heavy forehand that, unlike Cerundolo’s, he’s able to control much better. He limits unforced errors from this wing while playing with power. The Argentine’s backhand has massively improved over the past couple of years.
Don’t let Cerundolo’s 4-3 Golden-Swing record fool you. He is not playing good tennis right now. He’s lackadaisical on court, sluggish in his foot work and has been hitting too many ill-advised, early-ball errors.
Cerundolo has also not been mentally engaged throughout the Golden Swing. This is a big contrast with Etcheverry’s mental toughness on court, treating each point like it’s match point.
Etcheverry has shown better control over his forehand and should dictate play from that wing. When Cerundolo is able to land his groundstrokes, Etcheverry should still be able to absorb his pace and neutralize points.
Cerundolo is on upset alert.
Pick: Etcheverry ML (+142 via FanDuel)